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A month after its launch, the Inter-Continental Exchange's Middle East sour crude oil contract has garnered more trade than some ill-fated precursors, but is beginning to lose ground to its Nymax-backed rival.
While it has dodged failure, its success remains elusive as trading volumes and positions fall further behind the Dubai Mercantile Exchange's (DME) Oman contract, data showed.
More than 50,000 contracts, equivalent to 50 million barrels, of ICE Dubai crude have been traded since its May 21 launch, a great deal more than was achieved by previous experiments with Middle East futures contracts.
A previous attempt by the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) to launch an Oman/Dubai contract in May 2000 traded only for the first two days after it was introduced.
Total open interest - the number of outstanding positions - on ICE has stalled at below 5,000 contracts.
In contrast, the DME's open interest topped that level on Monday ahead of its next Friday expiry, when traders will have the option of settling outstanding contracts with delivery of physical Oman crude.
Without a clear victor in the contest, or a clear sign that trade will continue to grow, dealers and analysts were reserving judgment on which would ultimately prevail.
ICE Dubai, based on the Asian oil market's current benchmark system for its mainstay Middle East crude, has the benefit of a well-established system and trading platform. The DME offers a chance for change, something many traders say is overdue, but using a new trading platform.
"With ICE, you have the best possible platform and the worst contract. With DME, it's the reverse," said one trader with an investment bank.
The battle of convenience and security versus change has yet to be decided, although the new DME contract has won the support of powerful players, including the governments of Oman and Dubai as well as top independent oil trader Vitol SA.
Backed by the New York Mercantile Exchange, the DME launched Oman futures on June 1, posting a record of 6,250 lots of trade - both outrights and spreads - on its third day. |